9 January 2025
GTA REALTORS® Release December 2024 Stats
“The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a transitionary year in 2024. Annual sales were up slightly compared to 2023, and new listings were up significantly year-over-year. Buyers benefited from substantial negotiating power on price, especially in the condominium apartment market. Average selling prices in 2024 dipped in comparison to 2023 as a result.
“Borrowing costs were top of mind for home buyers in 2024. High interest rates presented significant affordability hurdles and kept home sales well below the norm. The housing market did benefit from substantial Bank of Canada rate cuts in the second half of the year, including two large back-to-back reductions. All else being equal, further rate cuts in 2025 and home prices remaining below their historic peaks should result in improved market conditions over the next 12 months,”
said the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Elechia Barry-Sproule.
Annual 2024 home sales amounted to 67,610 – up by 2.6 per cent from 65,877 sales in 2023. New listings, at 166,121, were up by a greater annual rate of 16.4 per cent. Listings increasing by a greater rate than sales provided buyers with considerable choice in the marketplace, which effectively kept a ceiling on any widespread price growth. The average selling price for all home types combined was $1,117,600 in 2024, representing a decline of less than one per cent compared to the 2023 average of $1,126,263. Market conditions were tighter for ground-oriented housing and selling prices held up better in these segments as a result. Price declines were more notable for condo apartments.
“Market conditions varied by market segment in 2024. Sales of single-family homes, including detached houses, increased last year, whereas condo apartment sales were down. Many would-be first-time buyers remained on the sidelines, anticipating more interest rate relief in 2025. The lack of first-time buyers impacted the less-expensive condo segment more so than the single-family segments,”
said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.
“Consumer sentiment, monetary policy, development policy, and issues such as congestion continued to impact the resale, new, and rental housing markets in 2024. Government policies on these fronts need to be reviewed in 2025. TRREB is providing in-depth coverage on all of these topics in our highly anticipated Market Outlook and Year in Review report to be released at the beginning of February,”
said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.
GTA home sales amounted to 3,359 in December 2024 – down slightly from December 2023. New listings were up over the same period, continuing the trend of a well-supplied market. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by less than one per cent year-over-year in December. Over the same period, the average price, at $1,067,186, edged lower.”
Average Sales Prices GTA
These are the monthly indications of the average sales prices of single family homes (all property types) in the GTA:
2021
$932,297 January 1st
$966,001 January 31st
$1,044,910 February
$1,097,319 March
$1,090,414 April
$1,108,137 May
$1,089,012 June
$1,061,653 July
$1,070,176 August
$1,135,027 September
$1,155,624 October
$1,162,564 November
$1,157,837 December
2022
$1,157,837 January 1st
$1,242,407 January 31st
$1,334,021 February (all time peak)
$1,298,705 March
$1,250,704 April
$1,210,372 May
$1,145,796 June
$1,073,213 July *
$1,078,999 August *
$1,086,456 September *
$1,087,590 October *
$1,079,420 November *
$1,051,409 December *
2023
$1,051,409 January 1st *
$1,037,027 January 31st *
$1,107,052 March
$1,152,519 April
$1,195,274 May
$1,181,002 June
$1,116,978 July
$1,082,881 August
$1,118,200 September
$1,123,390 October
$1,077,891 November *
$1,084,757 December *
2024
$1,084,757 January 1st *
$1,025,226 January 31st *
$1,109,444 February
$1,120,984 March
$1,154,348 April
$1,165,077 May
$1,161,144 June
$1,106,685 July
$1,074,083 August *
$1,106,542 September
$1,134,859 October
$1,106,148 November
What usually happens each year? The market starts off in January, rises in February, gains momentum in March and April and reaches its peak for the year in May. The market declines in June, declines in July and then bottoms out in August. In September, it reverses itself and rises once again, and in October, it reaches its second peak for the year. In November, the market declines, as it does again in December, and the cycle repeats itself the following year.
In 2024 the market started out in January, increased in February, March and again in April. It reached a peak for the year in May. It declined in June,, declined again in July and August and reversed itself in September. Then, it reached its second peak for the year in October, declined in November and again in December. So, we had a perfectly predictable 2024 on a monthly basis!
The overall market peak took place at the end of February 2022. Then, we had a series of significant increases in the Bank of Canada rate. That brought the market down and levelled it off. This past year, the Bank lowered rates again, but of course they are still substantially higher than they were in February 2022, when they were 0.25%, and within a month they doubled. That’s the effective impact. Now, a 0.25% decrease in rates has only a modest impact since we are currently at 3,25%.
Bank of Canada Rate Decreases in 2024 (overnight rates)
11 December 3.25%
23 October 3.75%
4 September 4.25%
24 July 4.50%
5 June 4.75%
10 April 5.00%
6 March 5.00%
(historically, February 2022, the rate was 0.25%
It’s important to appreciate that the Bank of Canada rate has gone from 0.25% (in February 2022) to 5.00%. That’s TWENTY Times! That’s the single most significant factor affecting the marketplace. Everyone is (or was) on pause until the new numbers settle in. Buyers who thought they could afford a detached home can only afford a townhouse, now that they factor in their increased mortgage payments.
We are not likely to see the 0.25% again. That’s quite unrealistic. The current rate is actually quite reasonable. The above noted rates are not the rates for the average consumer, they are the rates charged by the Bank of Canada when it lends money to Banks.
This is an outline of the current mortgage rates that are available for consumers:
As of January 9, 2025, mortgage rates in Ontario ranged from 2.99% to 5.79% depending on the term and type of mortgage.
Fixed-rate mortgages
- 6 month fixed: 2.99%
- 1 year fixed: 5.79%
- 2 year fixed: 4.84%
- 3 year fixed: 4.39%
- 4 year fixed: 4.59%
- 5 year fixed: 4.29%
Variable-rate mortgages
- 5 year variable: 4.35%
Other mortgage rates
- 5 year open: 4.95%
Price Decline
You will notice that prices have declined from a high of $1,334,021in February 2022 to $1,067,186 at the end of December. That’s a loss of $266,835 which represents a 20.00% decline.
If you look through the numbers whether there were small increases or decreases since the peak, the final result, namely $1,067,186 (or relatively close) was reached on a number of occasions (all noted with an asterisk * above).
When you look back, what you will find consistently is that the market is almost always 20% below the February 2022 market peak.
Sales Activity
Buyers have been sitting on the sidelines until the Bank of Canada stopped raising interest rates. Obviously, it’s time to jump back in again. We are likely to see increasing prices going forward, subject of course, to the annual predictable fluctuations.
At the outset Sellers held back and didn’t list their properties, however there are now a considerable number of listings and we would have a “balanced market” in terms of supply and demand.
Set out here are the number of sales transactions which took place each year:
2021 121,712
2022 75,045
2023 65,877
2024 67,610
Prior to 2021, there were several years over 100,000 in sales. The decline has been substantial and it looks like the consumer has lost interest.
The Market has Bottomed out and we are on a Rise Again
That’s the hope and expectation for 2025, but unfortunately there is no evidence of that, at this moment. We are looking for bidding wars to return. That will be an indication of the change.
Long Term Performance
It’s unfortunate, that the media hasn’t written about this yet. Over the longer term, real estate has proven to be an excellent investment. They will in time.
Here are the annual returns if you owned property (single family home in the GTA) from the following dates:
Year Value % Increase Annual %
10 years 2014 $566,611 104.4% 10.44%
5 years 2019 $787,842 35.46% 7.09%
Obviously, the returns over the last three years produce negative results.
For the Consumer
If you are a Buyer, this is a good time to get into the market. If you are a Seller, then, it would be wise to wait and take advantage of subsequent increases. If you are both a Buyer and a Seller, then it all depends. Trading up, proceed now, trading down, then wait. Naturally, each individual case must be determined upon its own merits.
If you would like to discuss the market, please give me a call at 647-404-8150.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker