Should You Sell Now or Wait Until Spring?

This is always a very interesting question. Let’s go back five (5) years and see if we can figure this out.

It’s November 2021, so should we list right now, since there’s a shortage of listings and high demand or wait until the new year 2022, or Spring itself which starts 21 March 2022?

REVIEW

Here are the average sale prices as reported by TRREB for single family homes of all types in the GTA, including houses, townhouses and apartments starting at the beginning of 2017 until now:

We need to know our date of commencement which will be November each year.

Average Prices              Month
 

2016

$777,181                     November

When will we actually make more money if we decide to wait?

2017
 

$730,124                       January 1st

$768,351                       January 31st

$876,363                       February

$915,126                       March

$918,170                       April

$862,149                       May

$791,987                       June

$745,896                       July

$730,907                       August

$774,705                       September

$780,652                       October

$761,397                       November

$734,824                       December

2017 was an extremely volatile year. The market bumped up significantly and then dropped rather suddenly. There are a variety of explanations, but one is that the “bubble burst”.

In November 2016 you would have received $777, 181 for your house. If you had waited until February, you would have made more money. The best price for the year was in April. So, you should have waited.

Let’s look at the next year? Our November 2017 figure is $761,397. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?

2018
 

$734,837              January 1st

$735,874              January 31st

$767,801              February    

$784,514              March

$804,926              April

$803,440              May

$808,066              June

$781,918              July

$765,252              August

$796,814              September

$807,538              October

$787,741              November

$749,019              December

In 2017, you made more money if you waited until February 2018, and you made the most money if you waited until June.

Our November 2018 figure is $787,741. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?

2019
 

$749,019               January 1st

$747,175               January 31st

$779,791              February

$788,133              March

$820,373              April

$838,248              May

$831,882              June

$806,971              July

$792,134              August

$842,421              September

$851,877              October

$843,307              November

$838,662              December

In 2018, you made more money if you waited until March 2018, and you made the most money if you waited until October.

Our November 2019 figure is $843,307.  If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?

2020

$838,662              January 1st

$838,087              January 31st

$910,068              February

$902,788              March

$820,226              April

$863,563              May

$931,131              June

$943,594              July

$951,219              August

$960,613              September

$968,535              October

$955,889              November   

$932,306              December

In 2019, you made more money if you waited until February 2020, and you made the most money if you waited until October.

Our November 2020 figure is $955,889.  If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?

2021

$932,277              January 1st

$966,068              January 31st

$1,044,933           February

$1,097,351           March        

$1,090,590           April

$1,108,077           May

$1,089,118           June

$1,062,712            July

$1,069,981            August                   

$1,136,119           September

$1,155,345           October

In 2020, you made more money if you waited until January 2021, and you made the most money if you waited until October.

Conclusions

It would appear that the market drops down in December each year and picks up in the mid-winter to early Spring.

Rather than face declining market prospects, Sellers would have been wise to relax, wait until the holiday period is over and then placed their property on the market.

These conclusions also seem to be borne out if we look back even further. In summary, our recent conclusions would be:

2016           wait

2017           wait

2018           wait

2019           wait

2020           wait

2021           wait, based upon the previous five years

In respect to the most volatile year, that is, 2017, we would still say “wait until Spring, but not until summer”.

Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker

www.OntarioRealEstatSource.com

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