This is always a very interesting question. Let’s go back five (5) years and see if we can figure this out.
It’s November 2021, so should we list right now, since there’s a shortage of listings and high demand or wait until the new year 2022, or Spring itself which starts 21 March 2022?
Here are the average sale prices as reported by TRREB for single family homes of all types in the GTA, including houses, townhouses and apartments starting at the beginning of 2017 until now:
We need to know our date of commencement which will be November each year.
Average Prices Month
When will we actually make more money if we decide to wait?
$730,124 January 1st
$768,351 January 31st
2017 was an extremely volatile year. The market bumped up significantly and then dropped rather suddenly. There are a variety of explanations, but one is that the “bubble burst”.
In November 2016 you would have received $777, 181 for your house. If you had waited until February, you would have made more money. The best price for the year was in April. So, you should have waited.
Let’s look at the next year? Our November 2017 figure is $761,397. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
$734,837 January 1st
$735,874 January 31st
In 2017, you made more money if you waited until February 2018, and you made the most money if you waited until June.
Our November 2018 figure is $787,741. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
$749,019 January 1st
$747,175 January 31st
In 2018, you made more money if you waited until March 2018, and you made the most money if you waited until October.
Our November 2019 figure is $843,307. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
$838,662 January 1st
$838,087 January 31st
In 2019, you made more money if you waited until February 2020, and you made the most money if you waited until October.
Our November 2020 figure is $955,889. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
$932,277 January 1st
$966,068 January 31st
In 2020, you made more money if you waited until January 2021, and you made the most money if you waited until October.
It would appear that the market drops down in December each year and picks up in the mid-winter to early Spring.
Rather than face declining market prospects, Sellers would have been wise to relax, wait until the holiday period is over and then placed their property on the market.
These conclusions also seem to be borne out if we look back even further. In summary, our recent conclusions would be:
2021 wait, based upon the previous five years
In respect to the most volatile year, that is, 2017, we would still say “wait until Spring, but not until summer”.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker