This is always a very interesting question. Let’s go back five (5) years and see if we can figure this out.
It’s November 2021, so should we list right now, since there’s a shortage of listings and high demand or wait until the new year 2022, or Spring itself which starts 21 March 2022?
REVIEW
Here are the average sale prices as reported by TRREB for single family homes of all types in the GTA, including houses, townhouses and apartments starting at the beginning of 2017 until now:
We need to know our date of commencement which will be November each year.
Average Prices Month
2016
$777,181 November
When will we actually make more money if we decide to wait?
2017
$730,124 January 1st
$768,351 January 31st
$876,363 February
$915,126 March
$918,170 April
$862,149 May
$791,987 June
$745,896 July
$730,907 August
$774,705 September
$780,652 October
$761,397 November
$734,824 December
2017 was an extremely volatile year. The market bumped up significantly and then dropped rather suddenly. There are a variety of explanations, but one is that the “bubble burst”.
In November 2016 you would have received $777, 181 for your house. If you had waited until February, you would have made more money. The best price for the year was in April. So, you should have waited.
Let’s look at the next year? Our November 2017 figure is $761,397. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
2018
$734,837 January 1st
$735,874 January 31st
$767,801 February
$784,514 March
$804,926 April
$803,440 May
$808,066 June
$781,918 July
$765,252 August
$796,814 September
$807,538 October
$787,741 November
$749,019 December
In 2017, you made more money if you waited until February 2018, and you made the most money if you waited until June.
Our November 2018 figure is $787,741. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
2019
$749,019 January 1st
$747,175 January 31st
$779,791 February
$788,133 March
$820,373 April
$838,248 May
$831,882 June
$806,971 July
$792,134 August
$842,421 September
$851,877 October
$843,307 November
$838,662 December
In 2018, you made more money if you waited until March 2018, and you made the most money if you waited until October.
Our November 2019 figure is $843,307. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
2020
$838,662 January 1st
$838,087 January 31st
$910,068 February
$902,788 March
$820,226 April
$863,563 May
$931,131 June
$943,594 July
$951,219 August
$960,613 September
$968,535 October
$955,889 November
$932,306 December
In 2019, you made more money if you waited until February 2020, and you made the most money if you waited until October.
Our November 2020 figure is $955,889. If we wait a few months, when will we make more money?
2021
$932,277 January 1st
$966,068 January 31st
$1,044,933 February
$1,097,351 March
$1,090,590 April
$1,108,077 May
$1,089,118 June
$1,062,712 July
$1,069,981 August
$1,136,119 September
$1,155,345 October
In 2020, you made more money if you waited until January 2021, and you made the most money if you waited until October.
Conclusions
It would appear that the market drops down in December each year and picks up in the mid-winter to early Spring.
Rather than face declining market prospects, Sellers would have been wise to relax, wait until the holiday period is over and then placed their property on the market.
These conclusions also seem to be borne out if we look back even further. In summary, our recent conclusions would be:
2016 wait
2017 wait
2018 wait
2019 wait
2020 wait
2021 wait, based upon the previous five years
In respect to the most volatile year, that is, 2017, we would still say “wait until Spring, but not until summer”.
Brian Madigan LL.B., Broker